Skymet forecasts a below-normal monsoon at 94% of LPA for 2026, citing emerging El Niño conditions. While June may see a normal start, rainfall is expected to weaken from July onwards, with central and northwestern regions likely to face deficits and increased risk of erratic weather in the latter half.
Skymet Weather has projected a below-normal southwest monsoon for India in 2026, raising concerns over rainfall distribution and its potential impact on agriculture and water resources. The private weather forecasting agency estimates seasonal rainfall at 94% of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the June–September period, with a margin of error of ±5%. This places the forecast within the ‘below normal’ category, defined as 90–95% of LPA. The forecast highlights evolving oceanic conditions, particularly in the Pacific, as a key driver of the expected shortfall.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the 2025 annual rainfall over the country as a whole was (1274 mm) 110% of the Long Period Average (LPA) for the period of 1971-2020.
According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, the Pacific Ocean has transitioned from prolonged La Niña conditions over the past 18 months to an ENSO-neutral phase. However, El Niño is expected to emerge during the early phase of the southwest monsoon and intensify through the season. “El Niño return may presage a weaker Monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular,” he said.
Apart from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to influence monsoon performance. A neutral to slightly positive IOD phase is anticipated, which may help support a decent onset of rainfall. However, Skymet cautions that this may not be sufficient to offset the adverse effects of a strengthening El Niño, especially during the latter half of the season.
The forecast indicates a high likelihood of uneven and skewed rainfall distribution across regions. The core monsoon rainfed zones, particularly central and western India, are expected to receive inadequate rainfall. Northern states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are also likely to witness below-normal precipitation, especially during August and September. In contrast, eastern and northeastern parts of the country are expected to perform relatively better.
Skymet has assigned probabilities to various rainfall scenarios for the June–September (JJAS) period. There is no chance of excess rainfall (above 110% of LPA), while the probability of above-normal rainfall stands at 10%. The likelihood of a normal monsoon is estimated at 20%. Meanwhile, there is a 40% probability of below-normal rainfall and a significant 30% chance of drought conditions, defined as rainfall below 90% of LPA.
On a monthly basis, June is expected to record near-normal rainfall at 101% of LPA, suggesting a stable onset. July rainfall is projected at 95% of LPA, with equal chances of normal and below-normal precipitation. Conditions are expected to deteriorate further in August, with rainfall estimated at 92% of LPA and a 60% probability of being below normal. September is likely to be the weakest month, with rainfall projected at 89% of LPA and a 70% chance of below-normal precipitation.
The forecast underscores the growing uncertainty around the second half of the monsoon season, with increasing risks of erratic and uneven rainfall patterns that could impact key agricultural regions and crop productivity.
